The Great Recession |
the-great-recession.info |
Investing
Below is a list of investment classes and monetary environments:
Investment Class | DEFLATION | INFLATION |
Cash | CASH IS KING. One Caveot, even though the good banks have prepaid three years worth of dues, the FDIC could be in trouble soon. Be careful where you store your cash. | Low inflation ok - high inflation will destroy the value of cash. |
Precious Metals (Gold / Silver / Etc) | Possible. Gold went down during Japan's deflation. It might behave differently for the USA due to extenuating circumstances. Please see gold section. | YES. |
Treasury Bills | Maybe - please read Conquer the Crash for ideas - low yield might be a good investment. | NO, except for possibly TIPS in low inflation environments. |
Municipal / State Bonds | In general NO, especially those entities in the red. | NO, will quickly lose value in high inflation environments. |
Corporate Bonds | Only high quality corporate bonds. If the company has cash flow problems, bonds may very well take a hit. | Same as above. |
Foreign Bonds | Not so bad, but if we have pure deflation, then Cash may still be king. | Maybe. Depends on the stability of the foreign currency. Good candidates are Canada, Switzerland and Australia. Inflationary foreign currencies are a bad idea. |
Commodities | Wait until the bottom. | Yes. |
Real Estate | Wait until the bottom. | Mostly YES - inflation reduces debt loads, but there may be unexpected actions taken by the government. During Germany's hyperinflation, the government enacted rent controls. |
Stocks | Wait until the bottom. | Maybe for high quality stocks. Perhaps just purchase SPY. |
("Conquer the Crash" has an excellent section regarding investing for deflation) |
The above investments recommendations are meant to preserve purchasing power and hopefully avoid big financial landmines. As always, please consult an investment professional.
05/13/2010